Hello from Washington,

I’m back in America, briefly, trying to get a sense of the political scene ahead of the mid-terms in November. Despite the stupor of summer, it feels like a febrile moment. Donald Trump, more than anyone, really can stir up national politics in a heartbeat. In the past week—as our Lexington columnist observes—he has threatened to shake the foundations of the place. Federal investigators’ raid on his Florida home nearly a week ago, and the threat of other legal cases against him, could yet pit this combative politician against the rule of law. Who’s to say which is stronger?

One context for this—more than the congressional and state elections looming in a few months—is the question of whether Mr Trump will soon declare he is running, for a third time, for the presidency. Other Republicans are eager to do so. Ron DeSantis, in Florida, is one. Look out, too, for Mike Pence, who will show up in Iowa this week, the traditional early stomping ground for candidates. (I’ve spent more hours than I can count driving between Iowa’s corn fields, following presidential wannabes on the campaign.) But as Mr Trump dominates news cycles, and as donors’ money gushes towards him, his claims of persecution will keep him at the front and centre of conversations. It’s hard to imagine anyone else will get a look in.

Otherwise, it’s just a year since Joe Biden’s greatest foreign-policy blunder: the rushed and humiliating exit of American forces from Afghanistan. Remember the chaos and disbelief as Taliban forces marched all but unopposed into Kabul? America’s lack of resolve one year ago may have encouraged Vladimir Putin to calculate, back in February, that the West would be similarly feeble over Ukraine. Thankfully he’s been proven wrong there. Ukraine, boosted by weapons from the West, is now talking up a counter-offensive in Kherson , in the south of the country (although Ukraine’s army faces steep odds, and may not be ready). And as we’re marking anniversaries, spare a thought for Russia’s opposition leader, Alexei Navalny. It’s two years since Mr Putin tried to kill him, by having secret agents poison him with Novichok. Mr Navalny survived, but now languishes in a prison camp.

As for Mr Biden, he has surprised many observers by getting some serious legislation through Congress this summer, notably the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, which we have analysed in recent days. He has also been able to welcome a dip in inflation in July, a reflection of oil prices drifting down. But bigger headaches are undoubtedly ahead. Not least is the matter of defending Taiwan (see our cover story in the most recent issue), and the looming military threat from China. I’d also recommend a recent By Invitation column on Taiwan, which warns that China is set on more than just sabre-rattling.

Let me flag one of our excellent new book lists. For anyone making a start in understanding economics, our senior writer on the topic has pulled together a selection of five essential books for understanding how economists think.

Last, I’ll be casting an affectionate look at India, where I also spent several happy years as a correspondent. That country, and Pakistan, both mark 75 years of independence from British imperial rule this week. Three-quarters of a century after winning their freedom, Indians should mostly celebrate that their country remains a tolerant, multi-faith democracy (despite its prime minister’s Hindu-nationalist tendencies). It has a large and growing economy and is gradually improving the lives of hundreds of millions of its people. Huge problems remain, of course, but there’s also much to cheer.

In the coming days I’ll be relishing some time on the road, taking the temperature of as many American voters as I can find, as a colleague and I criss-cross various southern states. The other treat I’m licking my lips for: barbecue. Do read this delightful take on that great American institution, and how the barbecue is really about friendship. I can’t wait. 

Have a very good week, and thank you for reading this newsletter. If you have any thoughts you would like to share, you can write to me at [email protected].

Adam Roberts
Digital editor

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