Putin is running Russia’s economy dangerously hot

From: The Economist IE Sep-15-2024 11:19:am

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December 10th 2023

The Economist today

A Sunday edition of our daily newsletter

Adam Roberts
Digital editor

Hello from London,

What’s in store for Russia in the next few months? Vladimir Putin—shock—has declared himself to be a candidate for the presidential election. Is there even a whisker of doubt that the dictator will emerge victorious? He expects to rule until at least the mid-2030s. Last time, in 2018, he squeaked in with more than a 60-point margin over his nearest rival, supposedly scooping up 77.5% of the votes cast. That’s easier, of course, if you make sure to lock up your serious opponents first.

Elections can be tricky, nonetheless. The three-day war he planned in Ukraine in 2022 has now, by my calculation, reached day 654. Mobilisation, official and otherwise, of large numbers of young (and not so young) men who are sent to shiver and die on the front lines is hardly popular. Meanwhile, Mr Putin is spending lavishly to pay for his war. Unemployment is low and wages are rising, but so is inflation. We have just published our latest assessment of Russia’s economy, which is now running dangerously hot. I encourage you to read it.

Plenty of other things are under way in the coming days. When it comes to America’s economy, keep an eye on the Fed meeting, midweek. We see three big risks for the world’s biggest economy in the coming year. Some developments this week in politics are also worth watching. Donald Trump is due back in court. (I suspect that’s a sentence I can copy-paste for some months to come.) Meanwhile, Hunter Biden, the president’s son, may testify before a committee in Congress that is investigating his business dealings. It remains unclear if that will be in public.

Elsewhere, China’s leaders must decide soon on how to reinvigorate that big but sputtering economy. I’d recommend our most recent story on this topic. In Britain there’s a return to chaos in the ruling Conservative party. I doubt we’ll see a leadership challenge against Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, any time soon, but you never know. And the COP28 meeting, in the UAE, is set to wrap up this week, too.

Beyond those events, let me point you to a clutch of entertaining articles.

For Scrooges and sentimentalists alike I recommend our latest “Economist reads” bringing together the best books about Christmas. And if, like me, you happen to have teenage children who need a gift or two this month (or want to treat yourself) then our round-up of the best video games of 2023 and a separate one on the best albums of the year might prove helpful.

We have also published our choice for our word of the year (read Johnson’s delightful column on it). I loved going through the many ideas that you offered—far more than I can possibly flag here. Bernardo Abrantes, in Lisbon, proposed inflation “due to the severe consequences for our households”. Lori Eggert, in San Diego, went for democracy, because it is under threat from authoritarians. Many chose terms in this area, often in reference to Mr Trump. Julia Wygant, perhaps on the same theme, picked scandal. A great many of you were preoccupied by geopolitics. Anne Davies, in Switzerland, plumped for war-mongering. Most seriously, Alberto Diaz and many others chose genocide, a reference presumably to horrendous violence in Sudan, Israel and Gaza and beyond. Donald Sansom opted for drone, for the impact this device has had on battlefields. Many went for words related to climate change.

I welcomed an idea from Henry Hogger in Briantspuddle, Dorset (I checked, it really is a place), who picked sportswashing, “for what the Saudis (and some other Gulf states) are doing by buying footballers and even whole clubs” to distract from their rotten human-rights records. As for our actual choice: Johnson, along with a remarkably large number of you (such as Barbara Meynert), was captivated by generative artificial intelligence and the many threats and opportunities associated with it.

And, after the word, the place. We’ll soon be celebrating our choice of the country of 2023. Which would you nominate? Send me your answer, and a sentence explaining why. One thing I’m sure of: the debate will be more fiercely contested than it was last year. You can reach me here: [email protected].

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