Hello from London,

As friends in America celebrate Labour Day they also mark, unofficially, the start of an intense period of political campaigning. The midterms loom. The next two months probably won’t bring the intensity of partisan clashes you’d expect in a presidential election (brace yourself for 2024). But the tone is already growing nasty.

In a speech last week Joe Biden accused some of his opponents of “semi-fascism” and said that some of Donald Trump’s supporters pose a threat to American democracy. At times the president’s language verged on the apocalyptic (read our columnist’s analysis). On Mr Trump’s side the language has been yet more extreme. At the weekend the ex-president called Mr Biden “an enemy of the state”. Worse, America’s divisions extend far beyond current and former inhabitants of the White House. We have taken a close look at how the increasing policy divergence between states is creating a disunited States of America.

This week we will publish forecasts for the outcome of November’s elections. Until recently the conventional wisdom was that the Democrats faced a thumping—the only question was how bad. I think it’s now time to adjust that view. A closer outcome is likelier, perhaps with the Democrats retaining the Senate.

The Democrats can point to legislative achievements, and forgiveness of some student debt. A surge in registration of women voters after Roe v Wade was overturned should help, too, as they are more likely to vote Democrat. Companies continue to hire—see the story we just published on this. Perhaps most important, the Republicans may have overreached. Mr Trump’s success in getting his favoured, but more extreme, candidates to win primary elections could discourage moderate Republicans from turning out.

When I joined some political campaigners knocking on voters’ doors in Virginia, in August, nobody brought up the war in Ukraine. Still, the conflict grinds on. The Ukrainian army’s counterattack against Russian invaders, centred on Kherson in the south, is the area to focus on. We just published an update on the mood in Mykolaiv, the city nearest the frontline.

In Britain, a new prime minister takes over on Tuesday. I won’t shed a tear for Boris Johnson. As we have repeatedly written, he was never fit to run the country. Instead we will take a close look at his successor, almost certainly Liz Truss, who will confront a world of economic and other pain as energy prices soar, recession looms and more. (Read the latest in our series on Britain’s economic problems, on the country’s failure to get stuff built.) More than the new leader’s words, pay attention to the cabinet appointments, in particular whether the new chancellor of the exchequer will indeed be Kwasi Kwarteng.

It’s also a week to take stock of global fears of inflation—and whether the greater worry is now the threat of widespread recession. Europe will be one focus, not least because of its intensifying energy crisis. (Read our take on that, here.) Europe’s central bank has been slower than its counterparts elsewhere in putting up interest rates, but at the governing-council meeting on Thursday expect them to rise by at least half a percentage point. New data in China this week will indicate how high inflation has reached there. 

Kenya, meanwhile, may offer a political twist. Could its Supreme Court decide that the recent presidential election should be rerun? Or will William Ruto, declared its winner, get to settle into office? And a few hours after this newsletter is rolled out, we expect to hear whether voters in Chile have backed the country’s proposed new constitution. 

As ever, thanks for your feedback. Several people wrote in to disagree with our take on NASA’s efforts to get a big new rocket into orbit, and eventually to the moon. We called them a colossal waste of money . After two failed attempts to launch the new SLS in the past week, our view hasn’t shifted. On Ukraine, meanwhile, Keith Parr in Hérault, France worries about Russia’s success in the information war, at home and aboard. I agree, Keith. Especially in parts of Africa and Asia, it’s been remarkable to observe Russia’s ability to persuade so many that a war to restore an empire should be met by nothing more than a shrug.

Please continue to write to me at [email protected], and you are most welcome to follow me on Twitter at @Arobertsjourno

Adam Roberts
Digital editor

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