March 19th 2023

Hello from London,

Two stories of global significance are jostling for attention. I’m gripped, first, by the latest chapter in the geopolitical saga that is about to unfold in Moscow. A three-day state visit by Xi Jinping to Russia, in which he will show solidarity with his fellow autocrat Vladimir Putin, is one of those moments when you can almost see great-power politics shifting. Our analysis explains what this visit signifies for China and Russia—and America.

One thing is clear: in the year or so since Mr Putin visited China in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has grown weaker and more dependent on its bigger Asian neighbour. Not only is Russia suffering directly (incurring immensely high casualties in Ukraine, for example), it has become ever-more isolated diplomatically than before. As Alexander Gabuev writes in a guest essay this weekend, Russia is on the path to becoming a vassal state, cut off from Europe and America, and there to do China’s bidding.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for the arrest of Mr Putin over the forced abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia. Could he really end up on trial in The Hague? The smart answer is to dismiss the idea—indeed, my Charlemagne colleague is sure that he won’t. But strange things can happen. In 2001 I interviewed Carla del Ponte, the chief prosecutor of an international tribunal established to try war crimes committed in the former Yugoslavia. I silently scoffed when she told me that another man indicted for war crimes, Slobodan Milosevic, the former Yugoslav president, would pay for his misdeeds. But she was right: Milosevic died, mid-trial, in a Dutch cell in 2006. Perhaps Mr Putin should read up on that case.

The other big story of the week concerns fear and uncertainty in the financial world. Our latest cover story asks how deep the rot runs in the banking world. The consequences of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continue to rumble on, and not only in America, where several regional banks look wobbly. Some fear it’s beginning to feel like 2007 again.

After limping on for years Credit Suisse has just been swallowed by a rival, UBS, for more than $2bn. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meets this week for perhaps its most consequential decision in recent years. Until recently the Fed had merely a difficult task of adjudicating between the threat of recession and persistently high inflation. Now, after years of rock-bottom interest rates, it must also worry about the consequences for badly run banks of quickly raising rates. Our new article lays out the dilemma.

I’m watching several other stories. We have just published a look at the warming relationship between India and Japan, two big Asian democracies worried about China’s rise, as their leaders meet. Back in Europe there’s a familiarity to the drama in France, as parliamentarians prepare for a vote of confidence in Emmanuel Macron’s minority government tomorrow. As president he won’t fall, but his prime minister and government could. All because of public anger that the state retirement age is set to rise to 64 (no, that’s not a typo) from 62. Either way, his presidency will be left severely weakened.

Thanks again for your feedback—notably your many excellent suggestions for more A-Zs, following our economics one. Several of you, including Anna Spencer, called for terms related to international politics, or a military glossary. James Shepherd-Barron suggested an A-Z to explain jargon in the aid world, whereas William Pilancinski urged us to unpack scientific terms. That’s a great idea, but potentially enormous, so perhaps Rod McShane’s bid for an A-Z of environmental and climate-change-related words could help focus that one. We’ve heard your suggestions—watch this space.

Please continue to write to me at [email protected], and you are most welcome to follow me on Twitter.

Adam Roberts
Digital editor

Recommended reads

Peacemaker or provocateur?

What does Xi Jinping want from Vladimir Putin?

Big questions loom as the Chinese leader heads to Moscow

Stick or twist

The Federal Reserve must choose between inflation and market chaos

Will policymakers raise interest rates as planned?

Related

It’s time to fix the financial system—again

Asian geopolitics

Fear of China is pushing India and Japan into each other’s arms

Asia’s biggest and richest democracies are close. They could be much closer

By Invitation

Russia’s reliance on China will outlast Vladimir Putin, says Alexander Gabuev

The director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre foresees a period of Russian vassalage

Charlemagne

Why Vladimir Putin will never stand trial in The Hague

Here is what could happen instead

Daily chart

How many Russians have been killed in Ukraine?

The death toll probably exceeds all Soviet and Russian wars since 1945 combined

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